The equation is simple. St George Illawarra Dragons must win their last two games, starting tonight against Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium, and then next week against Newcastle. Then they need results to go their way.
The Dragons are 11th on 26 points — two adrift from eighth-placed Parramatta, on 28.
They can’t afford a slip up.
Just a fortnight after breaking a 14-year hoodoo against Canberra in Canberra, the Dragons have another bogey record to bust against Brisbane.
Brisbane have dominated recent history between the clubs, claiming the points in their past seven clashes and nine of the past 10, though before then it was St George Illawarra holding the upper hand with eight wins in a row over the northerners between 2005 and 2009, five of which were recorded at Suncorp.
Josh Dugan, the former fullback, now playing centre, is a key man against the Broncos.
The NSW centre has been in grand form since his mid-season switch instigated by coach Paul McGregor.
Match kick-off 7.45pm.
Who are you tipping to win tonight's clash, and why?