Surging demand for Apple's iPhone 6 will increase Telstra's domination of the mobile market and win it an extra $500 million in revenue, according to Morgan Stanley Research analysts.
But Vodafone Australia and SingTel-Optus are also gearing up in expectation that Apple's latest smartphone will be a hit, thanks to its larger screen.
Morgan Stanley Research predicted the iPhone 6 would help Telstra get an extra 465,000 mobile customers during the 2015 financial year.
This would bring its total subscriber numbers to 16.5 million by June 30, 2015, compared with the 9.4 million at Optus and 4.96 million at Vodafone Australia today.
The company used an online survey of 2000 mobile users in August to test how customers felt about their mobile networks and the Apple iPhone 6.
"Respondents tend to think that Testra's service is too expensive [but] despite a higher price, user satisfaction is highest for Telstra followed by Optus and Vodafone," the report said.
"Only 25 per cent of the Telstra users believe switching to another operator could enhance their user experience, compared to 36 per cent of Optus users and 50 per cent of Vodafone users."
The report said 45 per cent of iPhones in Australia used Telstra's network, followed by 27 per cent on Optus and 26 per cent on Vodafone.
Morgan Stanley predicted the iPhone 6 would help Telstra gain another 5 per cent of the iPhone market, which in turn "could add $300 million to $500 million [in] additional mobile revenue".
Telstra's gains would come at the expense of its rivals.
Optus' market share would remain flat while Vodafone's share would drop 6 per cent if the iPhone 6 comes with a 5.5-inch screen as expected, Morgan Stanley predicted.
Pricing key
But the investment bank said its forecasts could be wrong if Optus or Vodafone launched an aggressive pricing war, because both companies are closing the 4G coverage gap with Telstra.
Other analysts also put caveats on the potential gains Telstra could make from the iPhone 6.
Bank of American Merrill Lynch's Sameer Chopra said Telstra's success would partly depend on its rivals offering entry level prices of about $80 per month or more.
He also said Apple's iPhone 6 would be a positive for Telstra if it used the 700MHz band of electronic spectrum the company bought for $1.3 billion and will switch on in 2015.
Telstra has historically done better than other carriers from the launch of new iPhone models, which almost always hits the market in the first half of the financial year.
"In three of the last four years Telstra has added significantly more subscribers in the first half versus the second half [of the year] and we believe much of this change is due to the launch of the latest iPhones," Mr Chopra said.
Consumers underwhelmed
Not all new iPhone models have been a big hits with Australian users. While still broadly popular, Apple's iPhone 5s and 5c got a lukewarm reception compared with the hype for the models that preceded them, as they were seen to offer little more than older models.
This let Korean handset maker Samsung fill the gap and win customers over with its popular devices.
"However, the data from our survey suggests that Apple's new iPhone 6 could see this trend turn around," Morgan Stanley Research said.
Predictions that Apple's iPhone 6 will feature a new 5.5-inch screen compared with the 4.7-inch screens that are currently on sale are key to the product and market's success, it added.
Locked in
Optus and Vodafone Australia see the iPhone 6 as a chance to improve their falling subscriber bases and sign customers onto newly created mobile services. Optus has its My Plan range while Vodafone Australia has its Red Plans.
Optus has a "Smartphone Alerts" website where customers sign up to get the latest information on new devices such as Apple's iPhone 6, while Vodafone Australia does the same with its "Start the Buzz" service.
But Telstra, Optus and Vodafone Australia are all locked into strict contracts with Apple that forbid them from talking about, marketing or even acknowledging the existence of the iPhone 6 before its official launch.
All three declined to comment on the record about anything relating to Apple's iPhone 6 when contacted by Fairfax Media.
