COMMENT
Many people were feeling a little dizzy after the rounds of debate following the announcement of the half-kilogram penalty for Melbourne Cup favourite Admire Rakti. And for good reason.
The confusion had its seeds sown some weeks ago. Racing Victoria chief handicapper chief Greg Carpenter said on Monday that Admire Rakti was made a "stand-in" topweight for the Melbourne Cup in lieu of other better credentialled entries and this has led to a raft of different statistics being thrown around that have confused rather than confirmed.
This is a tough statistic to argue with: No horse in 40 years has been able to carry Admire Rakti's new weight of 58.5 kilograms to victory in the Melbourne Cup.
On that basis, history says his task is enormous and he was unlucky to have gained a penalty at all.
But maybe his test is not as confronting as you might think when you consider that the Caulfield Cup's third placegetter, Lucia Valentina, who looms as one of his great dangers at Flemington, will now get a half-kilogram advantage from Admire Rakti when the pair meet in the Melbourne Cup.
But still her task is already gigantic according to the weights.
As her handicap went from 51 to 53 kilograms with the rising of the initial handicaps, Lucia Valentina has to set a weight-carrying record for a four-year-old mare of 53 kilograms. The record is held by Light Fingers, who lumped half-a-kilogram less almost 50 years ago.
On that basis, she deserved some weight concession from the impressive Japanese Caulfield Cup winner when the pair meet again at Flemington.
No Caulfield Cup winner has avoided a Melbourne Cup penalty since Ming Dynasty in 1980, and Admire Rakti's victory was a breathtaking one. On that basis, he deserved a penalty.
In the Melbourne Cup, Admire Rakti will face a vastly tougher field than he did on Saturday, with the likes of internationals Red Cadeaux, Willing Foe, Protectionist, Mutual Regard and Royal Diamond, as well as locals Fawkner and Silent Achiever waiting to take him on.
On that basis, Admire Rakti was unlucky to have been penalised.
Forgotten in the rush for statistics was Makybe Diva's third successive Melbourne Cup win in 2005, when she lumped 58 kilograms. In real terms, that should be 59.5 kilograms, as mares are allowed a 1.5-kilogram advantage over their males rivals.
The 58 kilograms lumped by Makybe Diva meant she carried exactly the benchmark weight for a mare over that trip. The 58.5 kilograms being asked of Admire Rakti places his weight 1-kilogram below the benchmark weight.
On that basis, Admire Rakti earned his penalty.
Admire Rakti was not a group 1 winner when allocated topweight for the Melbourne Cup of 58 kilograms and therefore it was argued at the time that he was indeed too harshly handicapped.
On that basis, maybe 58 kilograms should be his right weight for the Melbourne Cup.
Admire Rakti's connections have decided to take their chance in the Cup instead of running in the Japan Cup. That will be a relief for the Melbourne Racing Club. For while it had a memorable winner of the Caulfield Cup, future Japanese assaults on the Melbourne Cup may not feature a Caulfield Cup run so as not to further compromise their Melbourne Cup handicap.
