Racing officials are fearful that expected heavy rain on Friday night would have a dramatic effect on Saturday's opening meeting of the four-day Melbourne Cup carnival.
The weather bureau predicted up to 10millimetres of rain would fall at Flemington in the 24 hours leading into Saturday's nine-race program.
Track curator Mick Goodie said he was concerned by the forecast, which indicated that it would rain overnight and continue spasmodically through the day.
"It's not a good forecast, far from it," he said.
Goodie, who watered the track on Thursday night, said he was placed in an awkward position as far as doing the right thing by the course. "If you don't water and it doesn't rain you have a track that's rock hard, and then if you do water and we get more rain than expected, we're placed in a very awkward spot.
"In fact, you can't win. People are saying there are hailstorms predicted as well, but I'll just wait and see what happens ... The track's in great shape and so I can't find a problem with that – it's just this terrible forecast."
Goodie said if 10mm of rain does hit the course, the track rating would "more that likely go to a dead five or a slow six".
"The problem is the track is very good drying out, but if it rains and you're racing on it, that's when you get problems," he said.
Some of the most expensive horse flesh in Australasia will be on show at Flemington on Saturday, but in races such as the group1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, there is only limited wet-track form among the 16 high-class three-year-olds.
The make-up of the Melbourne Cup field appears more stable than the weather, with Racing Victoria chief handicapper Greg Carpenter believing there may be only "minimal" change to the likely field, which is declared on Saturday evening.
"While there's 38 still in the Cup, I can't see a lot of change happening. Of course, the Lexus [Stakes] looks set for one horse to move into the field as 12 of the 13 in the race are hoping to squeeze into the final field.
"Basically, just More Than Sacred is not in the Cup, so if she won there would be no movement."
But Amralah could force his way into the Cup if successful in the Mackinnon Stakes, giving one of Australia's biggest and most successful owners, Lloyd Williams, four runners in a bid to win his fifth Melbourne Cup.
Williams already has Fawkner, Green Moon and Sea Moon safely in the field. Amralah is 37th in the order of entry.
Carpenter said the only reason one of the likely Cup runners would miss the race would be injury, or the winners of the Lexus or Mackinnon forced their way into the final field of 24. "Apart from the one possible change from the Lexus and the Mackinnon, the field should remain pretty much in the order of entry," he said.
Chief steward Terry Bailey completed his examination of the 38 runners still in the Cup and a clean bill of health will be passed on to the Victoria Racing Club committee before the final field is announced.
