THE Reserve Bank is stirring after a year of finely judged inactivity.
The bank's board met for the last time this year on Tuesday, December 2, and concluded as usual that "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates".
But after the national accounts, the board is no longer so sure. It isn't just that the economic growth is weak. It's that it's been weak for two quarters in a row.
In the past six months Australia has stepped down from an annualised economic growth rate of 3.6 per cent to an annualised rate of 1.6 per cent.
Put politically, during the Coalition's first six months in office economic growth was high; during the past six months it's been low.
There are few signs it will pick up without help.
The Treasurer will do what he can, or as much as he feels he is able to. He says he won't cut spending any further ahead of Christmas.
But it won't be enough.
That's why the Reserve Bank board is considering cutting its cash rate when it next meets on February 3 after a two-month break.
A cut is not completely locked in and a lot can change in two months.
But most of the arguments line up in favour of a cut.
One is that a cut would boost the economy without stoking damaging inflation.
Wage and price rises are too low and unemployment too high for inflation to be a concern.
Another is that a cut would help bring down the dollar, which itself would boost the economy.
It would help stem the inflow of hot money that is keeping the dollar high.
The only cause for concern is that it might restoke an unsustainable real estate boom.
The bank has other measures in mind to deal with that including tougher lending standards for banks that lend to real estate investors. There is little reason not to cut.
What do you hope to happen with rates?
