In bowing out as Premier, Mike Baird will avoid the messy business of reshuffling his ministers. But whether it is Gladys Berejiklian or someone else, Baird's replacement may have no such luck. Technically, ministers are entitled to retain their portfolios after a leadership spill. But with a cabinet reshuffle already in the wings, the new leader will likely consider his or her options.
Winners or losers?
Gladys Berejiklian
In career terms, it seems the only way for Gladys Berejiklian to go is up to the top job. After she declined to challenge Mike Baird for the premier's position three years ago, the stars may have finally aligned for the treasurer. Berejiklian made a name for herself as transport minister, a period in which she instigated new tram and train lines. She has declared as a candidate for Premier and is the prohibitive favourite.
Rob Stokes
If Rob Stokes was to move from the planning portfolio, it might be, in Mike Baird's estimation, a loss for the area. According to Baird, there may never have been "a planning minister more credentialled in the history of this country" than Rob Stokes. With a PHD in environmental and planning law, and currently studying for a master's at Oxford, Stokes has recently begun a process of overhauling the state's planning laws. Although interested in rising further, Stokes is likely to stay in Planning for now.
Andrew Constance
Besting Berejiklian from within the Treasurer's own moderate faction looks like too big an ask too soon for Andrew Constance. In some ways, Constance's political career has become inextricably tied to Berejiklian's fortunes. The two swapped jobs after the 2015 election, when Constance moved to transport and Berejiklian to treasury. Since then, Constance has largely had to deal with issues of Berejiklian's creating: new tram lines, rail timetables, and regulatory issues were all on the boil when he entered the portfolio. If Berejiklian emerges as premier next week, she'll continue to be able to determine what Constance works on.
Dominic Perrottet
The Finance Minister may emerge as one of the chief beneficiaries of Baird's surprise departure. Dominic Perrottet, only 34, is considered one of the conservative Liberal candidates most likely to succeed. As such, he is a good chance to be elevated – if not to the premier's job, then potentially to the treasury or to deputy leader of the Liberal Party. That would also satisfy the right of the party, which will be looking to increase its representation. Perrottet entered cabinet in 2014 and has since proven an energetic presence in the position helping, for example, to drive through the roll-out of the Service NSW centres. He's since courted controversy, however, by his management of the proposed privatisation of the NSW Land Titles Registry – a measure aimed at securing funds for infrastructure, but opposed by lawyers and consumer advocates.
Anthony Roberts
When Fairfax Media polled voters in December about potential alternative premiers, Anthony Roberts scored a surprising 17.6 per cent result as the favoured replacement of Baird. That was second highest among his Liberal colleagues, behind only Berejiklian and in front of Constance, Stokes and Perrottet. Roberts is another conservative who may be elevated if the moderate faction takes the premier's job. The Energy Minister and Member for Lane Cove, Roberts is a former John Howard staffer.
Mike Gallagher
The former police minister has been in Parliamentary purgatory since he was named in an Independent Commission Against Corruption report into the solicitation of donations in 2014. But Gallagher has continually protested his innocence, and a return to the Liberal ministry may be a demand of his conservative faction should a Liberal moderate take the premier's job.
Adrian Piccoli and Jillian Skinner
The Education Minister and Health Minister were potentially facing the axe in a planned reshuffle now overshadowed by Baird's departure. Mrs Skinner, who spent 17 long years as the deputy health minister before she got the opportunity in the hot seat, is deeply reluctant to vacate her portfolio and has reportedly threatened to resign from Parliament and force a byelection if that were to occur. But the government is already facing instability with the loss of its Premier and a byelection in his seat of Manly, so that threat has lost some of its heat. Nonetheless, it may be looking to minimise the disruption and expense and move her sideways to medical research, while keeping her in cabinet. Piccoli's future will likely be determined by his Nationals colleagues.
What's next?
When the party room meets next week, the leadership team of Baird and Berejiklian will stand down and their positions will be declared open. Liberal members of both houses will then have an opportunity to nominate. If there is only one contender, that person will assume the leadership unopposed before the party room elects the deputy leader. If more than one person nominates, there will be a ballot. If Berejiklian wins the leadership as expected, Perrottet is the most likely next treasurer and deputy leader.
Mr Baird has also said he intends to resign as the Member for Manly, meaning a by-election will be needed.
