Types of cancer cases predicted for St George and Sutherland Shire in 2018

The Sutherland Shire is predicted to have among the highest number of melanoma cases diagnosed in Sydney in 2018 while the Bayside Council local government area is predicted to have among highest number of bowel cancer and lung cancer cases.

The Cancer Institute NSW has released the projected number of cases in 2018 for the four most commonly diagnosed cancers across Sydney - melanoma, bowel cancer, breast cancer and lung cancer.

The figures are projections based on previously diagnosed cancer rates across Sydney and assume that the most recent trend will continue into the future.

They show the Sutherland Shire local government area is predicted to have 55.9 cases per 100,000 diagnosed, the tenth highest in Sydney.

The shire has the highest incidence of melanoma in Sydney, followed by Mosman, Wollondilly, Hawkesbury and the Northern Beaches.

An estimated 75.6 cases per 100,000 are projected to be diagnosed with melanoma in Sutherland Shire 2018.

Sutherland Shire is expected to have the highest level of melanoma cases in Sydney in 2018. Picture: John Veage

Sutherland Shire is expected to have the highest level of melanoma cases in Sydney in 2018. Picture: John Veage

The shire is classified as one of the state’s melanoma hotspots, with the 11th highest incidence of melanoma cases in NSW.

In the Georges River LGA 35.7 cases per 100,000 people are predicted to be diagnosed with melanoma, in 2018 and in Bayside 29.1 cases per 100,000.

Overall, an  expected 2200 people will be diagnosed with melanoma in Sydney this year.

The Bayside Council area is predicted to have Sydney’s third highest incidence of bowel cancer and Georges River council Sydney’s fourth highest incidence.

Bayside is predicted to have 61.7 cases per 100,000 people of bowel cancer cases diagnosed in 2018, and the Georges River council area 59.5 cases per 100,000.

While the biggest risk factor for bowel cancer is age, lifestyle factors also raise a person’s risk include smoking, high alcohol consumption, being overweight or obese and the high consumption of red and processed meats.

Bayside Council LGA is also predicted has the fifth highest incidence of lung cancer in 2018, with 52.1 cases per 100,000 people diagnosed, the fifth highest level of incidences in the Sydney metropolitan area.

The Georges River LGA is predicted to have a lung cancer rate of 38.2 cases per 100,000 people, and Sutherland Shire 33.2 cases per 100,000 people.

Smoking is responsible for 90 per cent of lung cancers in men and two thirds of cancers in women, the Cancer Institute said.

Lung cancer is declining in men but still rising in women. This is due to the later peak in smoking rates among women.

Sutherland is 15th on the list of 34 Sydney metropolitan local government areas for predicted breast cancer cases, with 127.4 cases per 100,000 predicted for 2018.

Bayside’s breast cancer rate is predicted to be 123.5 cases per 100,000 people and Georges River 119.3 cases per 100,000.


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