The Turnbull government is facing up uphill battle with states, armed with a new report, to secure laws mandating a low-ambition 26 per cent reduction in electricity emissions.
Existing and planned renewable projects can already take Australia beyond that target, a report from the Climate Council has revealed ahead of a meeting of the nation's energy ministers.
The ministers will gather for dinner in Melbourne on Thursday before formal talks on Friday, once considered a deadline for signing off on a National Energy Guarantee but now only a step towards a possible deal in August.
The ACT government has already said it will use the meeting to argue for changes.
There's been strong opposition to a 26 per cent emissions reduction target for the electricity sector, which is at the low end of Australia's Paris Agreement commitment of 26-28 per cent reduction on 2005 emissions levels by 2030.
ACT Climate Change Minister Shane Rattenbury says he's identified it as one of five key areas of concern.
"While the technical design of the NEG mechanisms prepared by the [Energy Security Board] have an improved approach to account for emissions, there are serious deficiencies in the policy parameters proposed by the Commonwealth on Friday," Mr Rattenbury said.
Queensland Energy Minister Anthony Lynham said his state was still considering its position but remained committed to a 50 per cent renewable energy target by 2030.
Victoria's Lily D'Ambrosio wants a bipartisan approach to reduce emissions and grow renewables but is yet to indicate if she'll back the plan. Victoria is targeting 40 per cent renewable energy by 2025.
Federal Greens MP Adam Bandt has accused the government of dropping the ball on energy, leaving agriculture and transport with "ridiculously large tasks" to reduce their emissions.
Labor wants to up the overall target to 45 per cent in line with a Climate Change Authority's recommendation.
The Climate Council's March renewable energy report found there's already 9691 megawatts of renewable energy built, under construction or in the pipeline across the country, while the NEG reduction target equates to 9271 megawatts.
"This data shows how fundamentally flawed the proposed NEG is when it comes to tackling our greenhouse gas pollution levels," climate councillor Andrew Stock said on Wednesday.
The report also found rooftop solar installations for the first quarter of 2018 are 40 per cent higher than what the NEG's economic modelling assumed.
The Clean Energy Council wants energy ministers to support further detailed design and consultation, and a commitment to raise the "modest" emissions reduction target.
"Unless the emissions reduction target is higher, there will not be enough new power generation built to replace the coal-fired power stations which will retire in the coming decades," chief executive Kane Thornton said.
Australian Associated Press
