Republicans have had almost 20 years to regroup and rebrand since the failure of the 1999 referendum.
Still, the greatest obstacle that republicans face is lack of an appetite for change.
According to Newspoll, 50 per cent of Australians actively oppose or are uncommitted to a republic.
Opposition to a republic has gained ground among young people, with ResearchNow finding last month that support for a republic is weakest in the 18-24-year age bracket. Young people are disengaged from some of the republican dogmas so popular in decades past.
Republicanism in Australia is a top-down proposition. We don't see marches in the street, but we do see a shadow minister for the republic. We don't see viral social media campaigns, but we do see emphatic support from the Prime Minister and state premiers.
Emeritus Professor John Warhurst found in his 2009 paper for the Federal Parliament that it is those with higher incomes and within positions of organisational authority, whether in a government department or private companies, who were more enthusiastic about the prospect of a republic.
It is interesting, if republicanism is about the egalitarianism and nationalism of the "ordinary man", that managerial and political types, not ordinary suburban families, show the most enthusiasm for change. Some would say it's merely the fruit of enlightenment, but I would argue that the "man in the street" has savvy political instincts.
When it comes to constitutional change, Australians are understandably hesitant. We know how precious it is to live under a system that safeguards liberty, and we know that our constitution has served us well since 1901. In an increasingly divided polity with a growing mistrust of politicians, icons of service in the monarch and the royal family are a breath of fresh air.
April has already seen a new instalment to the line of succession and May will see a prince, very popular in Australia, married. The marriage of Prince Harry to Meghan Markle would have been inconceivable in years past. Clearly, this tradition is mobile.
In the absence of a convincing, concrete case for change, Australians will remain content to ride the wave of constitutional monarchy further into the 21st century.
- Rachel Bailes (pictured) is a law student and a spokesperson for the Australian Monarchist League in Sydney.
