The likelihood of more serious bushfires this spring has increased with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting more dry conditions over the next three months.
The climate outlook issued by BoM on Thursday, August 16, revealed the first months of spring (September and October) are likely to be drier than average for most of northern, eastern and southern Australia.
The forecast was all bad as far as Owen Price, a senior researcher at the University of Wollongong's Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, was concerned.
Dr Price said several months without any significant rain had elevated the fire danger.
“If we don't get any good rain, then the fire season is essentially starting now,” he said.
“And it is only going to get worse in the next couple of months. We are in big trouble if we don’t get any rain.”
Dr Price was part of the UOW and Western Sydney University team that produced maps of fuel moisture showing large areas around Sydney are drier than this time in 2013.
That year was marked by large springtime blazes that destroyed about 200 homes in the Blue Mountains alone.
Fuel moisture mapping, developed with remote sensing, picks up the rate live plants are drying out and also the dampness of dead material, such as leaves and branches on the forest floor.
Dr Price said the Rural Fire Service made the right call on Wednesday when they declared a total fire ban for Sydney, the Illawarra and the Hunter regions part way through the day.
Stronger than expected winds saw fire crews battle at least 83 fires across the state. Temperatures climbed into the mid-20s or higher across much of the state and winds whipped to 109 km/h at Bellambi, creating dangerous fire conditions.
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“When these variables interact - the winds and the high temperatures together - you get far more evaporation and far more fire behaviour,” Dr Price said. “It's all bad.
“The RFS are certainly aware and very concerned. I would be listening to their advice and getting prepared for the fire season now.”
Agron Latifi
Wollongong born and bred. I love reporting about the Illawarra region and have been doing it for more than 20 years. I've moved into sport recently after covering the education round for the last five plus years for the Illawarra Mercury. It's been a great pleasure.
Wollongong born and bred. I love reporting about the Illawarra region and have been doing it for more than 20 years. I've moved into sport recently after covering the education round for the last five plus years for the Illawarra Mercury. It's been a great pleasure.
