Given the record levels of development in Sutherland Shire, it might be assumed there will be a huge influx of new residents.
However, state government demographers have come up with the surprise forecast of a very low annual growth rate over the next 20 years.
The explanation is that there will be an enormous growth in the number of aged residents, many of them moving from family homes and often living on their own.
A report by Sutherland Shire Council staff said Department of Planning and Environment demographers forecast the shire’s population would grow at less than one per cent a year over the next 20 years.
An extra 40,150 people will call the shire home by 2036, taking the population to 260,400.
This will amount to a total increase of 18.2 per cent, or 0.7 per cent annually.
The report said the shire’s annual growth rate was the same as the Northern Beaches, and was one of the seven lowest in Sydney.
The others are the council areas of Woollahra (0.2%), Mosman (0.4%), Waverley (0.5%), Hunters Hill (0.5%), Blue Mountains (0.6%) and Fairfield (0.6%).
“Significantly greater annual growth rates are expected in Liverpool (2.3%), The Hills (2.7%), Parramatta (2.9%), and Camden (5.5%),” the report said.
“Parramatta Council area is expected to grow by 213,650 people.”
The report said, while the shire’s population growth would be slow over the next 20 years, there would be a demographic shift in the types of households.
This would in turn have an impact on the services and infrastructure needed to support the community.
“The forecasts indicate that the most dramatic change will be a 69 per cent increase in the number of people over 70 years old,” the report said.
”When coupled with the growth in older workers and pre-retirees (50-69), this period will see increased demand for dwellings as older people are more likely to live on their own (due to divorce or death) and changing infrastructure.
“Lone person households are expected to increase from 21% of households to 24% of households and there is a corresponding decline in households with children (39% down to 35%).
“Fewer persons per dwelling means more dwellings are required to accommodate our existing population.
“No significant increase in babies or early primary aged school age children is expected.”