British Open 2016 Tips

We've not long packed away the clubs after Dustin Johnson’s memorable win at the US Open and the British Open Championship has arrived - a week earlier than usual due to golf’s return to the Summer Olympics in August.

This weekend is setting up to be an absolute beauty with the US Open winner Johnson much tighter in the market this time around. Dustin was victorious at Firestone two weeks ago and is certainly in this one up to his ears!

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THE COURSE

Royal Troon Golf Club is located in Troon, South Ayrshire - Scotland. Southwest of Glasgow for those painting a mental picture.

It’s a beautiful course and a MUST WATCH for sports fans this weekend; so I’ll do my best to get you up to speed.

It’s a Par 71, 7,064 yard true test of a players Links Golf prowess. The stroke index in

The stroke index in the 2004 Open held here was 73.21 indicating its strength.

Unforgiving rough in patches, coastal breeze, undulating fairways and steep bunkers - all part of it.

As usual with Links Golf, the weather will play a huge part but it's hard to predict and in-play betting becomes even more enticing.

Since 1962 the British Open has been held here six times and on all six occasions the tournament has been won by an American - take of that what you will, to me it doesn’t mean a whole lot to deciding the outcome or value but an interesting stat none the less.

The Eighth hole known as the ‘Postage Stamp’ will “cause carnage” according to Graeme McDowell.

It is 138 years old, 123 yards long and also the shortest hole in Open Championship Golf.

The average score here in 2004 was slightly over par (3.09 shots).

The Par 4 tenth hole is also a tough Troon challenge that got the better of the players at the 2004 Open (4.24 average shots).

Only 30 birdies were made on this hole in 2004.

THE WEATHER

Although the wind doesn’t appear like it will be as brutal as what it can be on this coastal course, there is a fair bit of rain on the forecast meaning there will be some golfers disadvantaged by delays, timely conditions and the schedule.

This is something that’s very hard to handicap for pre-match betting purposes but will create some in-play betting angles for us.

At this stage, the forecast looks like this:

Thursday - Top of 17 degrees, rain unlikely, winds between 12-20kmph.

Friday - Top of 19 degrees, chance of rain throughout, winds between 12-20kmph.

Saturday - Top of 18 degrees, rain early and perhaps clearing in the afternoon, winds between 12-25kmph.

Sunday - Top of 18 degrees, early rain that again should clear in the afternoon, 12-20kmph.

**Please keep in mind that wind forecasts are only an indication and some of the holes closer to the ocean will obviously be affected more than others.

I expect the wind will be at least 25% greater on the actual course than what the local Troon weather forecast suggests.

THE MAIN CONTENDERS AND KEY METRICS

Jason Day ($9 favourite), Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson are taking up around 40% of the betting market percentage. So let’s start with them!

In 2004, Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance were key metrics. The greens are easy to attack compared to recent majors like Oakmont and the tougher PGA Tour greens.

The top three in 2004 all played the two par fives in seven-under-par.

Who are the top two in Par 5 scoring average on the PGA tour currently? Day and McIlory! Dustin Johnson sits 19th and Spieth 13th in the same category.

Despite this being the first Open at Troon since 2004, most British Opens are played on similar seaside tracks so there is some merit in analyzing the last few opens as well.

Greens in regulation and putting average are two other stats I’ll be zoning in on.

Last years winner, Zach Johnson, ranked third for Driving Accuracy, second for Scrambling and fifth for Putting Average on his way to hoisting the Claret Jug.

Zach won last year at 150-1 with as much as $300 being matched at one stage.

With that being said, Jordan Spieth ($10) is the first guy of the main core I’m willing to take a stand against given he ranks 113th in driving accuracy and 43rd in driving distance and not at his best right now.

His putting is incredible but his ball striking and accuracy has been up and down. I'll pass this weekend.

Surprisingly given how high he hits the ball, Jason Day’s record in the wind is right up there with the best on tour on my numbers.

Dustin's pinging fade also should equip itself well in the conditions while Rory grew up playing on these type courses and won the Open in 2014.

Dustin’s form is red-hot. Following his dominant win at Oakmont he went on to chase down Jason Day at Firestone and this is the first time he’s been single figures in a major ($9 at some books).

He also has a solid base of British Open form and he looked very good last year before falling to pieces on the weekend.

He’s a much different player now though, gunning for three straight tournament victories with the monkey off his back.

Rory McIlroy ($10) was starting to find his groove leading into Oakmont where he missed the cut, he then performed well at the French Open a fortnight ago.

He’s certainly not at his best though and we have to pay premium odds to back him. I’ve got him marginally ahead of Spieth but not excited by the price.

Jason Day has the best short game in the world, can scramble with the best of them but can be errant off the tee at times. He has the ability to take iron and still crush the ball 250+ off the tee which he may lean on this weekend.

His issues off the tee and hitting greens at Firestone worries me though and my only bets on him will be in prop markets if they arise.

Of the four at hypothetic even odds, I’d take Dustin Johnson this weekend. He sets up the best form wise and gets a course that should suit him but the margin is tight.

SUGGESTED BETS

Not getting too involved in outright markets early on, lots of variance here and the weather will play its part.

Smylie Kaufman Top 20 @ $11

Certainly back in form now, slowly away at Firestone but then hit his straps. Can hit a long ball. On the way up and worth a punt; Top 20.

Colt Knost Top 20 @ $13

Knost is flying under the radar here and should be around $8 for Top 20. Great value play here given his accuracy off the tee and strong current form.

Kevin Chappel Top 20 @ $7

Struck some form again last week and looks to be surprisingly well suited by the course. Mid March through to May he was playing great golf each week. Can bounce back.

Matt Kuchar Top 20 @ $4.30

Great value here. Kuch is ultra consistent (five top six finishes at his last six events!). He is 28th on the tour in fairways hit, 29th in GIR and 12th in strokes gained tee to green.

Zach Johnson to beat Bubba Watson @ $1.91

Crazy value here, I’m against Bubba and ZJ should contend.

Sergio Garcia to beat Rickie Fowler @ $1.91

Feel much better about Sergio beating home someone playing below his best than the entire field. He (Sergio) looks a moral to play well again. Rickie still too scratchy to bet this weekend.

Tyrrol Hatton v Thongchai Jadiee @ $1.83

We bet against him last week and we'll do so again!

PROJECTED WINNER

Branden Grace $31

Ticking over nicely, he’s gritty and will be there abouts. His fellow South African mates Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel live hopes as well!

I’ll fire off some more H2H’s as more markets pop up later in the week.

Enjoy the Open Championship folks!

This article first appeared on TopBetta HERE.