The Northern Territory could be facing minority government, with pollsters reluctant to call the outcome of next week's election.
A swing of about three per cent in some seats could mean the ruling Labor party loses its grip after next Saturday's poll.
It's a proposition that Chief Minister Michael Gunner concedes could put someone else in the top job.
"The result is going to be really close," he said.
Keeping tabs on the contest is Rolf Gerritsen, who notes that a Country Liberal Party and Territory Alliance preference deal could limit Labor to just 10 of the 25 seats in parliament.
"If it turns out to be 11 then (Labor) can form a minority government and use the support of the three independents who are likely to be elected," the Charles Darwin University professor told AAP.
Gas fracking will be an important issue for some voters and it could also drive a wedge into the CLP-Alliance deal, with the two parties at odds on the subject.
"Labor and the CLP are pro-fracking but the Alliance is currently against it," Prof Gerritsen said.
Political analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor won big in 2016 - leaving the CLP with just two seats - but it's unlikely to repeat that in this election.
"(Labor) could lose a bunch of seats with a fairly small swing against them," he said.
The party's introduction of compulsory preferences on ballot papers may also tip the result against them in some seats, Dr Bonham said.
"If they don't poll a good primary vote they may find that they've shot themselves in the foot."
There has been little polling done ahead of the August 22 election. A June survey of Darwin residents showed Labor on 34 per cent of the primary vote, followed by CLP with 29 per cent and the centrist Alliance on 11 per cent.
CLP leader Lia Finocchiaro has been campaigning on a tough-on-crime platform, including a promise to reintegrate Youth Justice back under the corrections portfolio.
In an interesting twist, Territory Alliance leader Terry Mills served as NT chief minister for the CLP from 2012 to 2013 before quitting parliament, and splitting from the party.
He returned to parliament as an independent and last year formed the Alliance, which he has told the ABC offers a "grassroots alternative" to the major parties.
Labor must also overcome criticism of the NT's economy, which was rated as the nation's worst performer by CommSec for the June quarter.
A budget update the same month showed debt and deficit had soared to record levels.
The impact of the coronavirus crisis will result in a $1.28 billion jump in the deficit from the previous forecast to more than $2.28 billion.
Net debt will also hit a predicted $8.25 billion, about $1.35 billion more.
While it's been costly, the government's handling of COVID-19 - considered hardline by some - might be enough to stem the flow of votes away from Labor.
"They may not get many votes out of it but they may avoid losing some because the focus on the rust bucket economy has moved on," Dr Bonham said.
Early voting is proving popular for the election, with more than 22 per cent of ballots cast by Saturday.
Australian Associated Press
