Liberal MP Lee Evans faces a huge challenge to retain the seat of Heathcote at the next state election in 2023 after proposed boundary changes.
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The five per cent margin Mr Evans enjoyed after the 2019 election has gone and the seat is now notionally Labor by a 1.7 margin per cent.
In a draft redistribution, released by the NSW Electoral Commission, the boundaries move south to take in the northern Illawarra suburbs of Thirroul and Austinmer and part of Bulli and Coledale, along with part of Kirrawee in the north.
Mr Evans said the proposed boundary changes were "no problem at all".
"It's the old area I was elected to in 2011," he said. "I have got a relationship with the surf lifesavers and community groups because I represented Northern Illawarra.
"We are two years out, but I am quite confident we will get over the line."
There is likely to be a big field of Labor pre-selection candidates, at least in the early stages.
Labor MLC and spokesman for Heathcote electorate Mark Buttigieg is supporting Maryanne Stuart, who was the party's candidate at the last two elections.
"My view is that it should be a merit based process to choose the best candidate," he said.
"I do think people who have put in the effort in adverse conditions and have worked hard and built up name recognition deserve loyalty.
"It's a democratic process and will be decided by branch members.
"There is always the possibility of head office intervention if there are special conditions, but this is used sparingly."
Mr Evans is already saddled with the handicap of a broken promise to duplicate the Heathcote Road bridge at Engadine. The government is pushing ahead with a $73 million upgrade, which will widen but not increase the number of lanes.
Transport Minister Andrew Constance has announced a further $35 million to plan the duplication of the road, which will include investigating the feasibility of a high-level bridge.
Proposals for other shire electorates, with margins calculated by ABC analyst Antony Green:
Cronulla: No change. Margin remains 19.6
Miranda: The seat, held by Liberal Eleni Petinos, will take in more of the Menai district, with the margin remaining about the same (14.4 per cent). Loses Alfords Point to Holsworthy electorate and part of Kirrawee to Heathcote.
Holsworthy: Gains parts of Menai and Bangor from Heathcote and Alfords Point from Miranda. Sitting Liberal Melanie Gibbons's margin increases from 3.3 per cent to six per cent.