Eleni Petinos was 71 votes ahead as vote counting in the seat of Miranda continued on Monday afternoon.
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Scrutineers from both major parties were carefully watching every vote.
Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce, who is on the Liberal Party's state executive, said, "At this stage we expect to hold Miranda".
"Postal votes will favour us. Eleni sent out 2000 postal votes with a letter, whereas I don't think Labor sent out any."
A Labor source confirmed that was the case.
Postal votes don't close until April 4, so the result may not be known until after that.
Another senior Liberal said, as well as the likelihood of pre-poll and postal votes favouring Ms Petinos, he felt there was a more positive attitude towards the Liberal Party during the major part of the early voting period.
He said he detected a mood change on the Friday before election day, and thought this could have been to do with Labor's campaign on Sydney water privatisation cutting through.
A third senior Liberal was of the view Labor candidate Simon Earle would be the ultimate winner and that he had shown himself to be much more approachable and willing to listen to voters.
Going into the election, Ms Petinos had a margin of 14.4 per cent.
Several Liberal Party campaign volunteers who handed out how-to-vote cards in Miranda, told the Leader voters had punished her over the allegations she bullied staff.
They said the issue had been raised frequently by voters.
At polling booths in the Jannali-Como area, there was a particularly big swing against the Liberal Party, attributed to Ms Petinos' role in the government's attempted compulsory acquisition of nine homes at Jannali to build a commuter car park.
Ms Petinos declined to comment on either issue during the election campaign, and has not replied to requests for comment on the vote count.
At the time Ms Petinos was sacked from the ministry, she said in a statement there were "intense pressures and stresses" in her ministerial work. "I would never intentionally offend anyone or make them feel uncomfortable, and if I did I am truly sorry," she said.
Labor candidate Simon Earle attributed Labor's strong performance to "the hard work of the volunteers, a couple of key people in the campaign and the work that I've put in myself in getting out there in the community and letting people know who I am and what I'm about".
"Obviously, a big part of it is a negative reaction to Eleni Petinos and the way she has failed the electorate of Miranda in representing them," he said.
Former state Labor MP Barry Collier said Mr Earle had worked very had and "done all the traditional things like door knocking".
"He has resonated with the community - they have responded to him because of his genuineness and willingness to get out there."